MUGShotMy research interests are geopolitical forecasting, prediction markets, migration, income based welfare schemes and the labour market.

Current Projects:

I am the UK representative (and managing director) of Good Judgment Inc- for professional training, forecast platforms and commissioned forecasts please visit our corporate site,

My extended research paper on Negative income tax, ‘Free Market Welfare’, was published by the Adam Smith Institute in October 2015. This paper accompanied the verbal evidence I gave to the Liberal Democrat welfare policy committee in November, and my speech advocating Basic Income at the LSE.

My thesis reviewing the evidence for a Basic Income scheme’s effect on the UK labour market is published online by the Citizen’s Income Trust.

I’m also a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc. Read about our project in the Financial Times, NPR

I directed #SuperConLdn, the first UK conference on our Superforecasting project- here’s an article about it in the New Statesman. I was interviewed about Superforecasting for the BBC Radio 4 programme All in the Mind (interview starts at 7 mins), Business Today on the BBC World Service and for a new podcast called James vs IgnoranceOther interviews are collected at my Soundcoud.

I once had a semi-viral video called London’s 66,000 guns



You should write what you think about this here, especially if you disagree- help smash my media bubble!

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