My research interests are geopolitical forecasting, prediction markets, migration, income based welfare schemes and the labour market.

Current Projects:

I am the UK representative of Good Judgment Inc- for professional training, forecast platforms and commissioned forecasts please visit our corporate site, GoodJudgment.com

My extended research paper on Negative income tax, ‘Free Market Welfare’, was published by the Adam Smith Institute in October 2015. This paper accompanied the verbal evidence I gave to the Liberal Democrat welfare policy committee in November, and my speech advocating Basic Income at the LSE.

My thesis reviewing the evidence for a Basic Income scheme’s effect on the UK labour market is published online by the Citizen’s Income Trust.

I’m also a Superforecaster with Good Judgement Inc. You can read about our project in the Financial Times, NPR and a more detailed writeup of recent activity on my blog

I directed #SuperConLdn, the first UK conference on our Superforecasting project- here’s an article about it in the New Statesman. I give regular lectures about Superforecasting (list of upcoming lectures), and I was interviewed about Superforecasting for the BBC Radio 4 programme All in the Mind (interview starts at 7 mins), Business Today on the BBC World Service and for a new podcast called James vs Ignorance. Other interviews are collected at my Soundcoud

I am also helping out with a new monthly event in London called Empirical Sex about sexuality and gender differences which also has a podcast